name: thesis-market-mapping
description: "Build and maintain a thesis-driven market map and roadmap: segment taxonomy, company list, wedge hypotheses, and 'must be true' claims. Use when exploring a new sector, refreshing coverage, or generating high-conviction sourcing targets."
license: Proprietary
compatibility: Requires web access for research; optional Salesforce logging via REST API.
metadata:
author: evalops
version: "0.2"

Thesis market mapping

When to use

Use this skill when you need to:
- Build an internal point of view on a sector (new thesis or coverage refresh)
- Produce a market map (companies + segmentation) that drives sourcing and diligence
- Turn "interesting" into "actionable" (who to meet, what to ignore, what to bet)

Inputs you should request (only if missing)

• Sector / theme and a tight wedge to start with (e.g., "AI eval tooling for regulated industries")
• Stage focus (pre-seed/seed/A/B+) and check size range
• Any existing notes, prior memos, or firm theses
• Time horizon (what "now" means: 6, 12, 24 months)

Outputs you must produce

1) Market map database (CSV/Sheet-style, not prose)
2) Thesis one-pager (max ~1 page) with falsifiable claims
3) Top 10 force-ranked list with:
- One-sentence "must be true" per company
- Wedge hypothesis
- Why now
- What would change your mind
4) Kill criteria (explicit signals that would cause you to abandon the thesis)
5) Contrarian hypotheses:
- 3 reasons this thesis is right when others disagree
- 3 reasons this market might be fake
6) Sourcing routing (who internally should see what, and why)

Recommended templates:
- assets/market-map.csv
- assets/thesis-one-pager.md
- assets/top-targets.md

Procedure

1) Set the aperture (do this first)

Write a 3-5 line problem statement:
- Who is the buyer?
- What job are they trying to get done?
- What is broken about the current workflow?
- What changed that makes a new approach possible now?

Then define the wedge:
- Narrow enough that you can know it better than the internet in 30-60 days.
- Broad enough that it can expand to a big market if you're right.

2) Create a segmentation taxonomy (avoid "misc")

Create categories that reflect how buyers buy, not just product features.
Use 5-9 primary segments max. For each segment, add:
- ICP / buyer role
- Budget source (security, IT, product, compliance, etc.)
- Adoption trigger event (regulatory change, platform shift, cost curve, breach, etc.)
- "Why now" drivers

3) Populate the market map (treat it like a database)

Fill the table with:
- Company / product
- Wedge + ICP
- Pricing / GTM motion (PLG, sales-led, channel, services-assisted, etc.)
- Proof of pull (referenceable customers, OSS adoption, hiring, usage signals)
- Differentiation (one sentence)
- Switching costs / moat hypothesis
- Notable risks (one sentence)
- Investors / financing (if known)
- Status (meet / watch / pass)

Rules:
- Keep entries short; you're optimizing for scan speed.
- Record unknowns explicitly; don't guess.

4) Force-rank and write "must be true" claims

Pick the top 10 companies that matter and write:
- "This becomes huge if ______ is true."
- Evidence you have today (links, conversations, data)
- What would falsify it (what you'd need to see to stop believing)
- Fastest test to validate or kill (what's the 1-day test?)

Then write 3-7 "must be true" claims for the thesis overall, such as:
- Buyer behavior ("CISO will fund this from X budget because...")
- Distribution ("This category will be won by teams with...")
- Product leverage ("Model improvements reduce cost by...")

5) Write contrarian hypotheses and kill criteria

Contrarian hypotheses (why you might be right when others disagree):
- 3 reasons this thesis is correct that aren't consensus
- What do you believe that most investors in the space would disagree with?

Why this market might be fake (steelman the bear case):
- 3 reasons this market doesn't exist or won't work
- What would make you abandon this thesis entirely?

Kill criteria (explicit exit conditions):
- List 3-5 signals that would cause you to stop pursuing this thesis
- Examples: "If [buyer type] doesn't fund this from [budget], abandon." "If cycle time exceeds X months, abandon."

6) Identify archetypes and failure modes

For each segment, list the 2-4 most common failure modes:
- "Nice-to-have" that dies in procurement
- High integration cost with unclear ROI
- Incumbent bundles it "good enough"
- Founder misunderstands buyer / cycle time

This becomes your future screening rubric.

7) Convert the map into a sourcing plan

Create a weekly plan:
- 10 "new names" to investigate
- 5 outreach targets
- 3 operator calls (buyer-side truth)
- 1 deep dive (new sub-segment)

Deliverable: a 10-bullet "what changed this week" update.

Salesforce logging (optional but recommended)

If Salesforce is the system of record, log the map so the firm can route and measure work.

Option A (simple):
- Create a Salesforce Campaign called Thesis: <topic> (YYYY-MM) and add target companies/people as Campaign Members.

Option B (low-dependency):
- Create/update Leads for founder contacts and Accounts for companies.
- Store Thesis=<topic> in a tagging field if you have one; otherwise prepend it to Description.

If you need API workflows, use the salesforce-crm-ops skill.

Examples

• Input: "Map the AI code review / AI SDLC tooling market for seed deals."
• Output: market-map.csv with 120 companies, taxonomy, top 10 force-ranked targets with must-be-true + fastest test, 5 falsifiable claims, 3 contrarian hypotheses, 3 bear cases, kill criteria, weekly sourcing plan.

Edge cases

• If the wedge is too broad: propose 2 narrower wedges and proceed with the one that has the clearest buyer + budget.
• If you can't find buyers: switch to operator calls (the map is empty without buyer truth).