name: zero-to-one
description: Apply Peter Thiel's Zero to One principles for building new products, evaluating ideas, and strategic thinking. Use when creating something new (not iterating), assessing market opportunities, competitive positioning, startup strategy, deciding what to build, or evaluating whether an idea is truly innovative vs incremental.
tags: [create, decide]

Zero to One Thinking

Apply these principles when building new products or evaluating opportunities.

Core Framework

0→1 vs 1→n: Determine which mode applies:
- 0→1 (Creation): Building something that doesn't exist. Requires conviction, contrarian thinking.
- 1→n (Iteration): Copying/improving what exists. Requires execution, competition.

Always ask: "Is this creating new value or redistributing existing value?"

The Contrarian Question

Before building, answer: "What important truth do few people agree with you on?"

Format the answer as: "Most people believe X, but the truth is Y."

If you can't articulate a contrarian truth, the idea is likely 1→n, not 0→1.

Monopoly vs Competition

Goal: Build a monopoly, not a competitor.

Monopoly characteristics:
- Proprietary technology (10x better, not 2x)
- Network effects (product improves with users)
- Economies of scale (stronger as you grow)
- Branding (defensible identity)

Red flags (competitive thinking):
- Defining market broadly to seem unique ("we're the only X that does Y and Z")
- Comparing to competitors as positioning
- Racing on features rather than creating category

Good sign: Market so small competitors ignore it, but it can expand.

Secrets

Every great business is built on a secret—something true that most people don't see.

Two types:
- Secrets about nature: Undiscovered scientific/technical truths
- Secrets about people: Things people hide or don't know about themselves

Where to look for secrets:
- What are people not allowed to talk about?
- What's forbidden or taboo?
- What do experts dismiss that might be real?
- What fields are under-explored?

Power Law Thinking

Outcomes follow power laws, not normal distributions.

Implications:
- One investment/product/decision will matter more than all others combined
- Don't diversify thinking—concentrate on what could be huge
- The best opportunity won't look like the "average good opportunity"

Questions to ask:
- "Could this be the one thing that matters?"
- "What would have to be true for this to be 10x, not 10%?"

Definite vs Indefinite Thinking

Prefer definite optimism: Have a specific vision and build toward it. Indefinite thinking leads to option-hoarding and incrementalism.

Symptoms of indefinite thinking:
- Over-reliance on A/B testing vs conviction
- Building "platforms" without specific use cases
- Keeping options open rather than committing

Distribution Matters

Product doesn't sell itself. For every product, answer:
- What's the Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)?
- What's the Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)?
- What distribution channel fits this ratio?

Distribution spectrum:
- Viral (CAC ~$0): Product spreads through use
- Marketing (CAC $1-100): Broad reach, low touch
- Sales (CAC $1K-100K): Relationship-driven
- Complex sales (CAC $100K+): CEO-level deals, multi-year

Most products fail on distribution, not product.

Application Checklist

When evaluating an idea or building a product:

1. [ ] Can I articulate a contrarian truth behind this?
2. [ ] Is this 0→1 (new) or 1→n (better)?
3. [ ] What's the secret only I/we see?
4. [ ] Can this become a monopoly? Through what mechanism?
5. [ ] Does this have power-law potential?
6. [ ] Do I have a definite vision, not just optionality?
7. [ ] What's the distribution strategy?

Anti-Patterns

Avoid these traps:

• "We'll figure out monetization later" → Indefinite thinking
• "We're like Uber for X" → 1→n imitation, no secret
• "We compete on price" → Commodity, not monopoly
• "The market is $100B, we just need 1%" → Broad market = competition
• "We're agile, we'll pivot" → No conviction, no secret