name: signal-monitor
description: Log, monitor, and analyze trading signals for the Polymarket bot. Use when tracking signal frequency, quality metrics, or post-OBI-filter performance analysis. Helps identify signal drift, over-trading, and edge degradation over time.

Signal Monitor

Lightweight trading signal logging and analysis system for monitoring Polymarket bot performance after OBI filter removal.

Quick Start

# Log a new signal
python3 scripts/log_signal.py --pair "BTC-USD" --edge 0.12 --strike 85000 --confidence 0.73

# View recent signals
python3 scripts/signal_report.py --last 24h

# Check signal quality metrics
python3 scripts/signal_report.py --quality --since 2026-01-25

Core Concepts

Signal Schema

Each signal is stored as a structured entity:
- timestamp - UTC timestamp
- market_pair - Trading pair (e.g., "BTC-USD")
- edge - Calculated edge/advantage (0.0-1.0)
- strike_price - Entry price target
- confidence - Model confidence score
- signal_type - ENTRY | EXIT | HOLD
- metadata - Optional context (volatility, liquidity, etc.)

Quality Metrics

• Signal Frequency - Signals per hour/day
• Edge Distribution - Mean, std dev of edge values
• Strike Hit Rate - % of signals reaching strike
• Confidence Calibration - Predicted vs actual accuracy

Workflows

1. Log a Signal (from trading bot)

Use scripts/log_signal.py to record each signal:

python3 scripts/log_signal.py \
  --pair "BTC-USD" \
  --edge 0.15 \
  --strike 87500 \
  --confidence 0.68 \
  --type ENTRY \
  --meta '{"volatility": 0.023, "spread": 0.0012}'

2. Daily Signal Report

Generate a summary of recent signals:

python3 scripts/signal_report.py --last 24h --output markdown

3. Quality Analysis (Post-OBI)

Monitor for signal degradation after OBI filter removal:

python3 scripts/signal_report.py --quality --compare baseline

4. Alert on Anomalies

Detect unusual signal patterns:

python3 scripts/signal_report.py --anomaly-check --threshold 2.5

File Locations

• Signal database: ~/.local/share/signal-monitor/signals.jsonl
• Baseline metrics: references/baseline_metrics.json
• Config: ~/.config/signal-monitor/config.json

Integration with Trading Bot

Add to your Polymarket bot:

import subprocess

def on_signal_generated(pair, edge, strike, confidence):
    subprocess.run([
        "python3", "skills/signal-monitor/scripts/log_signal.py",
        "--pair", pair,
        "--edge", str(edge),
        "--strike", str(strike),
        "--confidence", str(confidence)
    ])

See Also

• references/schema.md - Complete signal schema documentation
• references/baseline_metrics.json - Pre-OBI baseline for comparison
• references/analysis_patterns.md - Common analysis queries