name: fourth-turning
description: Apply Strauss-Howe generational theory for understanding historical cycles, anticipating social/political shifts, and positioning for macro changes. Use when analyzing generational dynamics, planning long-term strategy in changing social climates, understanding why institutions are failing, or preparing for periods of crisis and transformation. Also use when building products/services for specific generational cohorts.
tags: [macro]

The Fourth Turning

Cyclical theory of history based on generational archetypes.

The Cycle

History moves in ~80-year cycles (a "saeculum"), divided into four "turnings" of ~20 years each.

High → Awakening → Unraveling → Crisis → [repeat]
 ↑                                    ↓
 └────────────── ~80 years ───────────┘

Each turning has a distinct mood, and each generation plays a different role based on their life stage during each turning.

The Four Turnings

1. High (Spring)

Mood: Optimism, institution-building, conformity

Characteristics:
- Strong institutions, weak individualism
- Civic order and collective purpose
- Conformity valued over self-expression
- "We" over "I"

Example: Post-WWII America (1946-1964)

Opportunities: Build institutions, join organizations, collective projects

2. Awakening (Summer)

Mood: Spiritual upheaval, attack on institutions, individualism rises

Characteristics:
- Youth reject institutional conformity
- Cultural and religious renewal
- Individual meaning over collective purpose
- "I" asserts against "we"

Example: Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984), counterculture, Watergate

Opportunities: Cultural movements, new ideologies, spiritual/personal development

3. Unraveling (Autumn)

Mood: Cynicism, weak institutions, strong individualism

Characteristics:
- Institutions distrusted and decaying
- Culture wars, fragmentation
- Individualism peaks
- Society feels like it's drifting

Example: Culture Wars era (1984-2008), political polarization

Opportunities: Individual entrepreneurship, niche communities, hedging against institutional failure

4. Crisis (Winter)

Mood: Emergency, institutional destruction/rebirth, collectivism returns

Characteristics:
- Existential threat (real or perceived)
- Old institutions destroyed or rebuilt
- Collective action, sacrifice demanded
- Fourth Turnings end with a new order

Examples: Great Depression/WWII (1929-1946), American Revolution, Civil War

Current: Approximately 2008-present (began with financial crisis)

Opportunities: Crisis leadership, building new institutions, solutions to collective problems

The Four Generational Archetypes

Each generation is shaped by which turning they experience in childhood, and plays a specific role.

Prophet (Idealist)

• Raised during High (indulged childhood)
• Come of age during Awakening (lead it)
• Moralistic, values-driven
• In Crisis: elder statesmen providing vision
• Example: Boomers

Nomad (Reactive)

• Raised during Awakening (under-protected)
• Pragmatic, cynical, self-reliant
• Distrust institutions
• In Crisis: midlife pragmatic leaders
• Example: Gen X

Hero (Civic)

• Raised during Unraveling (protected childhood)
• Team-oriented, institution-trusting
• In Crisis: young adult soldiers/builders
• Example: Millennials, GI Generation

Artist (Adaptive)

• Raised during Crisis (overprotected)
• Flexible, seek consensus
• Refine what Heroes build
• Example: Gen Z, Silent Generation

We Are in a Fourth Turning

Started: ~2008 (financial crisis catalyst)

Characteristics we're seeing:
- Institutional distrust at all-time highs
- Political polarization intensifying
- Sense of existential challenges (climate, inequality, pandemic, AI)
- Calls for fundamental change
- "Old order" feeling unstable

Historical pattern: Fourth Turnings culminate in a climax—a decisive conflict or transformation that resolves the crisis and establishes a new order.

Timeline: If pattern holds, climax period roughly 2025-2035.

Implications for Strategy

During a Fourth Turning

Expect:
- Institutions to fail or transform
- Increased volatility and conflict
- Collective demands overriding individual preferences
- Old rules becoming obsolete
- New rules being written

Opportunities:
- Building new institutions
- Solutions to collective problems
- Leadership during crisis
- Being positioned for the new order

Risks:
- Clinging to old institutions
- Assuming stability returns
- Individualist strategies in collectivist mood
- Missing the new order being built

Generational Strategy

Working with Boomers (Prophets):
- Appeal to values, vision, meaning
- They see themselves as moral leaders
- Respect their experience but recognize their blind spots

Working with Gen X (Nomads):
- Pragmatic, results-focused
- Skeptical of institutions and ideology
- Value self-reliance and competence

Working with Millennials (Heroes):
- Team-oriented, want to build
- Idealistic but practical
- Want to be part of something bigger

Working with Gen Z (Artists):
- Adaptive, consensus-seeking
- Digital natives, different relationship with institutions
- Will refine and humanize what gets built

Pattern Recognition

Signs of turning transition:
- Old solutions stop working
- Mood shift across generations
- New vocabulary emerges
- Events that "feel" like turning points

Fourth Turning markers:
- 2008: Financial crisis (catalyst)
- 2016: Political upheaval (acceleration)
- 2020: Pandemic (intensification)
- 202X: Climax (resolution, new order)

Building for the Cycle

In Crisis turnings, build:
- Solutions to collective problems
- New institutions (old ones failing)
- Tools for coordination and cooperation
- Infrastructure for the next High

Don't build:
- Products for stability (it won't return soon)
- Individual luxury (collective mood)
- Things that depend on old institutions

Position for the next High:
- What will people need when order returns?
- What institutions will emerge?
- Who will lead the new era?

Application Checklist

When planning long-term strategy:

1. [ ] What turning are we in? What's the mood?
2. [ ] What generational dynamics are at play?
3. [ ] Which institutions are failing? Which are emerging?
4. [ ] Am I building for the current mood or the past?
5. [ ] How does this position me for the next turning?
6. [ ] What collective problems need solving?
7. [ ] Who are the rising generations and what do they need?
8. [ ] What would this look like in 10-20 years when the cycle shifts?

Anti-Patterns

• "Things will return to normal" → Normal is changing; the cycle moves
• "Institutions are permanent" → They're destroyed and rebuilt each cycle
• "This generation is the problem" → Each archetype has a role; blame is misplaced
• "Individual solutions in Crisis" → Mood is collective; adapt or be irrelevant
• "History doesn't repeat" → It rhymes; patterns recur
• "We can avoid the climax" → Fourth Turnings culminate; prepare accordingly